Tropical Storm Idalia Will Soon Become Hurricane Idalia
Idalia is expected to become a major hurricane before making landfall.
Image: NOAA
Tropical Storm Idalia is about to become Hurricane Idalia and start its assault on Florida's west coast.
Storm surge and tropical storm warnings and a hurricane watch are up for Sarasota, and a hurricane warning is posted for Manatee County.
Idalia's path is still somewhat variable. However, it's critical to understand that a small easterly shift in the eye of the storm from its projected path could bring much more severe impacts to the mid-Florida Gulf Coast, from Tampa Bay to Venice.
As it stands this evening, storm surges and high surf stand to be the most critical expected impacts, with 3-5 feet of peak surge in coastal Sarasota County, 4-7 feet in Manatee County and Tampa Bay, and perhaps 8-12 feet in the Big Bend, where Idalia could roar ashore as a major hurricane—Category 3 or higher—on Wednesday morning.
This image shows the peak storm surge forecast for our region.
Image: NOAA
Please—as we have been saying for months—know your elevation.
If you live on a barrier island, leave. If you are in an evacuation zone that has been called to evacuate, leave. Your escape routes may flood before the storm hits its peak.
If you are in one of these places and you are 5 feet above sea level, a 7-foot storm surge means water will come inside your house and your home could become unstable. Don't do what dozens of folks did last year during Hurricane Ian and stay home. Many of them are not with us anymore.
The storm path is shown below with appropriate warnings. The eye can be anywhere within the cone. Impacts can and will be well outside the cone. Because this storm will have very intense characteristics on its eastern side, the coastline and areas near the coastline are at higher risk than you might think.
The storm's forecast path as of Monday afternoon.
Image: NOAA
Heavy rains, from 2-4 inches, are expected, with heavier amounts further north. Winds in the Sarasota metro area will range from 40 mph to hurricane force in northern Manatee County. Expect gales to develop by late afternoon tomorrow and continue thought the night and into Wednesday morning
The winds around a hurricane move counterclockwise, which means storm surges will be the worst after the eye of the storm moves north of your location. That also means that as the winds shift to onshore and blow at gale-force or higher, water will surge into the coastlines.
A final point: remember that a Category 2 or Category 3 storm today will have much higher storm surges and tides because sea levels are 9 inches higher than they were in 1950. Those 9 inches of sea level rise, plus a full super moon and record-high sea surface temperatures combine to increase the threat.
Since the Suncoast is in Idalia's potential path, please make sure to be prepared. What is your elevation? Where will you go if evacuations become necessary? Will you move your autos to higher ground? Do you have your important papers packed so you take them with you? Are you prepared for long lasting power outages?
Make intelligent science based decisions. Protect your property but be sure to protect yourself. We'll keep you updated as we know more.
Bob Bunting is a scientist, entrepreneur and educator and the CEO of the nation’s first Climate Adaptation Center (CAC), headquartered in Sarasota. The Climate Adaptation Center is an expert resource to inform government, academe and the private sector so they can create the necessary adaptation strategies and actions to protect the Florida way of life and foster the climate economy as well as larger global solutions evolve to solve the climate problem. For more information, visit theclimateadaptationcenter.org.
