The National Hurricane Center is tracking three topical disturbances right now, so start reviewing your hurricane preparedness plans. Bob Bunting, CEO of Sarasota-based Climate Adaptation Center (CAC), says three potential tropical storms in mid-June is a rarity, which points to more evidence of a warming climate.
On Tuesday afternoon, Tropical Storm Bill was off the mid-Atlantic Coast and was expected to continue on a northeast path toward Newfoundland. Another topical wave is heading west off the coast of Africa and is still too far away to be a threat.
Bunting says the one to watch is the system brewing in the southern Gulf of Mexico near the Bay of Campeche. For now, this disturbance looks like it will affect the upper Texas coast and Louisiana by Friday or this weekend with heavy rains.
Bunting’s June 14 update for the 2021 hurricane season is forecasting 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes of a Category 3, 4, or 5. May 2021 was one of the driest months in Florida’s history, he says, and some research points to a correlation between May droughts and an increased chance of storms during hurricane season.
On a better note, sea surface temperatures in the northern Gulf and the tropical Atlantic are “slightly cooler than last year at this time,” says Bunting. The CAC’s next scheduled updates for the 2021 hurricane season are scheduled on July 15 and August 15.