Weather Report

Another Tropical System Will Form in the Southwest Gulf This Weekend

It's too early to know where its center will form or if it will strike land, but at minimum, the southern two-thirds of Florida is likely to face another extreme precipitation event.

By Bob Bunting October 4, 2024

The Gulf of Mexico on Friday, Oct. 4.
The Gulf of Mexico on Friday, Oct. 4.

Image: NOAA

We don't want to jump the gun, so this update will be short and sweet.

Another tropical system will form in the southwest Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. However, it's too early to pinpoint the exact location of its center or if it will become yet another named storm to strike land sometime mid- to late next week.

At a minimum, however, the southern two-thirds of Florida is likely to face another extreme precipitation event.

It's October, the worst month for storms on the west coast of Florida because systems form in the southwest Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean and then target places along the west coast.

At the moment, a frontal system is likely to set up in the northern Gulf of Mexico and steer the storm system eastward, toward the southern two-thirds of our state. It's possible a named storm could evolve early next week.

However, because the Gulf has been churned up by Helene, the sea surface temperatures are a bit cooler. That would limit very rapid development that has become the norm in recent years.

For now, the call to action is to stay tuned and make sure you are planning for a storm next week. 


Bob Bunting is a scientist, entrepreneur and educator, and the CEO of the nation’s first Climate Adaptation Center (CAC), headquartered in Sarasota. The Climate Adaptation Center is an expert resource to inform government, academe, the private sector and philanthropy so they can create the necessary adaptation strategies and actions to protect the Florida way of life and foster the climate economy while larger global solutions evolve to solve the climate problem. Its fourth annual Climate Conference takes place Nov. 14-15. Contact Bob at [email protected] for more information.

 
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