After weeks of record-setting heat and near-drought conditions, slow-moving tropical rainstorm developing over the Gulf of Mexico this week is expected to bring more than foot of rain to parts of Florida—including 8 inches to 10 inches in Sarasota and Manatee counties. AccuWeather meteorologists say rainfall totals this week could rival rainfall totals from some of the powerful hurricanes that have made landfall in Florida in recent years, including Hurricane Ian.

A plume of moisture from the Caribbean will move across the state during the week. This will bring us widespread showers with the highest totals in Southwest Florida. Most of this rain will fall on Wednesday through Friday. #flwx pic.twitter.com/f8tJxxfRBo

— NWS Tampa Bay (@NWSTampaBay) June 10, 2024

“The bullseye is on southwest Florida along the Gulf Coast,” AccuWeather chief on-air meteorologist Bernie Rayno said in a press release. “The big threat is going to be flooding. Warm air at the surface and cold air aloft makes for a very unstable atmosphere. With a dip in the jet stream this far south, it’s going to pull a lot of tropical moisture into Florida.”

The rain is forecast to begin tomorrow and fall through Sunday, so it's safe to say that you probably shouldn't plan on a beach day this week. Flash flooding is a major concern across the state this week, but the rain and clouds will provide a break from the recent heat in the Sunshine State, reduce the risk of wildfires and help improve the aforementioned drought conditions.

Meteorologists also say that this storm is unlikely to develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, although forecasters are predicting an above-normal hurricane season, with 17-25 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes.