Brian Tresidder, a sales manager with the national broker William Raveis Real Estate in Siesta Key and Lakewood Ranch, moved to the Sarasota area in 2004 from Canton, Ohio, where his family was involved with new construction. After arriving here, Tresidder, now 41, managed investment properties and in 2011 formed Key Solutions, which was later acquired by William Raveis. Recently, Tresidder was named the 2023 president of the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee, replacing outgoing president Tony Veldkamp.

We recently caught up with Tresidder to get his take on the current real estate market and his forecast for what to expect in 2023. The interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.

What do you think led to our current real estate cooldown? 

“It started with the migration to Florida, which led to a skyrocketing of prices we’ve never really seen before, with month-over-month significant increases. It priced out a lot of people who wanted to buy a home. Then interest rates went up overnight and anyone who was unable to pay cash watched both home values and interest rates increase to the point they could no longer buy. We saw a lot of buyer fatigue.

“Following the craziness, with the multiple offers, people wanted to take a step back. There wasn't an urgency to buy anymore. It feels like we hit the top of the market, and it got so expensive. Now, people aren’t rushing to buy a house they don’t love like before. There’s also more uncertainty with inflation and the economy, too. So lots of people are hitting the pause button and making sure they're not over-extending themselves. It’s a watch and wait moment while many buyers feel like they missed out on a time to buy.

"Our inventory levels, although not as low as a year ago, are still short. A balanced market is six months of inventory. Right now it’s roughly 2.4 months. This time last year, it was less than a month. There are almost three times more houses on the market, but still short.”

Will those factors continue to affect the market through the new year?

"Yes, I think so. One of the issues with the inventory levels is that many buyers who had purchased their home when interest rates were lower have little to no motivation to sell and buy another at the current, higher interest rate unless they have to upsize, downsize or move areas altogether. Even with the decrease in the number of sales happening, home values are still up. Not a lot of sellers in our area are thinking of decreasing listing prices. There's still low inventory, and the asking prices are a little more reasonable than they were.

"Last year, sellers would put out a price that we thought would never work, then did. But it started shifting in April 2022. It's still a seller's market based on the inventory, because, even with interest rates, the homes aren't losing their value since supply and demand are still there.”

We’ve historically been more affordable than other beachside destinations. Would you say Sarasota and Manatee counties are still affordable compared to other places? 

“It depends on where you’re comparing it to. I don't think affordability and Sarasota go together anymore. The word now is 'attainable housing' and 'workforce housing.' It's big for us to try to figure out homes for people who live and work here, versus second homes and winter homes for those who can afford that lifestyle. For a long time, Manatee County single-family homes were more expensive than Sarasota, but if you’re getting away from the waterfront, it may be more affordable than Sarasota, but still not in line with what people who earn their money here can afford. Wages just haven't risen at the same rate as the market compared to five years ago.”

Should home shoppers wait to buy? 

“We always say it depends on the situation. Some people have to buy. The tricky part is that, a year ago, if someone said, ‘I'm not sure you should buy; it’s so high,’ most people who waited have seen that it's only gone up.

"This is the crystal ball question. Some economists say they see prices dipping a bit next year, but then say they'll rise. Not many are saying it's going to dip and stay there. The consensus is prices will maintain their levels and get back to a normal year-over-year increase which looks like 2 to 4 percent."

Are there still delays in supply chains affecting the building industry?

“There were, yes. We heard lots of horror stories from buyers about moving here in February and six months later still being unable to move into their new home. I think it's starting to catch up. I think builders are slowing down the number of starts they're taking on, but there are still new homes that are months behind.

"Hurricane Ian didn’t help. Workers are now headed south of us, where there was more destruction, and rightly so. For instance, we lost a couple of offices in Naples, as well as a sales trailer for new construction. Once that eases, I think we’ll have more of a return to normal wait times.”

Where are the best deals right now for buying a home?

“Down south of us is definitely more affordable. As you get farther from Tampa and the airport—those would be the areas where you can get more house for your dollar. Think North Port and Wellen. For the most part, you can find newer houses there, too, compared to Sarasota. We'll see people going down there especially if they can work remotely. Areas hit by Ian and storms like it see prices dip in the short term, but then they rebound quickly since the influx of new workers and rebuilding boosts the area.”