AccuWeather released its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast today.

We know, we know. We don't want to acknowledge that we're heading toward storm season, either—but it's important to be prepared, especially with several unique factors at play this year.

Hurricane season runs June 1-Nov. 30. AccuWeather predicts 11-16 named storms this year, with three to five of them directly affecting the U.S. Depending on the number of storms that actually form, that currently means a near-average or below-average season. (The Atlantic season's historical average is 14 named storms.)

But it also doesn't mean we can breathe a sigh of relief. Water temperatures are "exceptionally, exceptionally warm," according to AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva, not just on the surface, but hundreds of feet below it, across most of the hurricane basin. Those warm waters contribute to a phenomenon called rapid intensification, in which storms grow in size and strength over a short period of time. Hurricane Milton—which made landfall on Siesta Key in 2024—holds the record for the fastest intensification of a storm, transforming from a tropical depression to a Category 5 hurricane in just 54 hours. 

Another factor to consider: A developing El Niño may keep overall tropical activity closer to the average mark than the below-average one, particularly during the second half of the season, when storms tend to affect the Gulf Coast. El Niños are characterized by higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which weaken trade winds, alter international jet streams and—important for our region—can cause significant climate-related impacts, including increased flooding on the Gulf Coast. 

In other weather-related news, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), home to the National Hurricane Center, is updating its graphics for the 2026 season. The tropical cyclone forecast cone—also known as "the cone of uncertainty"—will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas to help residents better understand storm impacts on their communities. 

The takeaway? All it takes is one storm to cause a major disaster—something our region knows more intimately than most, after Hurricane Helene and Milton caused catastrophic damage over just 10 days in 2024. Make sure to have an emergency plan in place, know your elevation and evacuation zones, and heed local officials' advice and warnings.