Big Question

Are We Headed for Another Real Estate Bust?

Real estate consultant Jack McCabe sees trouble ahead.

By Susan Burns March 6, 2017 Published in the January-February 2017 issue of Sarasota Magazine

For sale sign odzwzc

Jack McCabe of McCabe Research & Consulting, a Deerfield Beach-based real estate consultant, was one of the few who predicted the real estate crash and recession 10 years ago. He sees trouble ahead.

“Global economics and market forces currently in progress will drive the U.S. into recession in 2017. Foreign countries have been flooding the U.S. with investment funds for a safe haven and conversion to U.S. dollars, but that is already slowing and may stop. South Florida may see some devastating effects. Seventy percent of all transactions in the Miami market have been to foreign buyers, and the upper-end condo market is oversaturated with new developments.

“Sarasota and Manatee will weather the storm better than the rest. This region is not as dependent on foreign nationals as a large percentage of local real estate transactions, and it has not been overbuilt compared to new population and housing demand. When prices peak, which is imminent, a crucial question is will investor owners try to sell their properties? Homes $750,000 and up may be a weak spot in the Sarasota area market. There are fewer and fewer potential luxury buyers. Most affluent buyers have already purchased and taken advantage of the discounts in the last several years.

“It’s my opinion the lower and middle price ranges will maintain and most likely increase in value regardless of a recession. The Sarasota and Manatee area is and will continue to be a top relocation destination for Midwesterners and Canadians, and I predict that over the next 10 to 20 years the region is going to be one of the most desirable areas to relocate to in the U.S.”

Boom Town

Downtown Sarasota Development Projects*

Total projects: 41
22 Condominium/Apartment/Townhome projects
6 Residential-mixed use projects
5 Hotels
7 Commercial projects
1 Office project
Total number of units:
1,638 apartments
1,574 condominiums
854 hotel rooms
334,770 square feet of retail/restaurant space
126,577 square foot of commercial/office space
Existing: 6,554
Projected population if all projects are completed: 12,355
*Includes new and renovated projects, permitted and unpermitted, with construction values of more than $500,000 within the CRA (Community Redevelopment Authority) boundary of approximately one square mile. Source: City of Sarasota

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