In 2025, thousands of new residents surrendered out-of-state driver licenses for Florida ones in Sarasota and Manatee counties—a paper trail that shows the region is still attracting newcomers, even as where they land continues to shift.

Multiple indicators point to a region still drawing newcomers from across the country, though with less frenzy than during the pandemic-era surge, according to new data from Florida Realtors, based on out-of-state driver license exchanges. The data tracks when new Florida residents obtain a Florida license after moving and, while it does not distinguish between buyers and renters, it offers one of the clearest real-time measures of longer-term relocation at the county level.

The two datasets measure migration differently. Florida Realtors’ figures are based on out-of-state driver license exchanges, offering a county-level view of longer-term relocation. U-Haul’s Growth Index draws from one-way moving rentals nationwide and reflects directional movement rather than permanent residency. Together, they show both where people are settling and where migration momentum is headed.

On the ground, the numbers largely align with what local agents are seeing, according to David Crawford, broker-owner of Catalist Realty in Sarasota and the current president of the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee (RASM). “Post-Covid was an outlier. We try to look at pre-Covid numbers as a more normal baseline. And we’re still up.”

Crawford says part of the renewed momentum stems from a gradual easing of the mortgage “lock-in effect” that followed the rise in interest rates. During 2022 and 2023, many homeowners who bought or refinanced into sub-3 percent mortgages were reluctant to move at all. “Even if they wanted to move, it was hard to give up that current situation,” he says. But that resistance has begun to fade. “That lock-in from 2022 and 2023 has loosened. People realize 4 percent is probably not going to happen again soon. Historically, around 6 percent is still strong.”

Psychology has also played a role. After the unprecedented 2024 hurricane season, Crawford says some prospective buyers paused. “A lot of people watched this past storm season in 2025, and it took some of that fear out of the equation,” he says.

Florida Realtors’ data shows that the Northeast and Midwest remain dominant feeder regions, with New York consistently ranking as the top source of new residents for both Sarasota and Manatee counties. New Jersey, Illinois, Pennsylvania and other Midwestern states continue to follow. But Crawford says the mix has widened. “In our day-to-day, we’re definitely seeing more California and West Coast buyers than we did pre-Covid,” he says.

That broader national draw is echoed in U-Haul’s 2025 Growth Index, which ranks states, metros, and cities based on net gains from more than 2.5 million one-way truck, trailer and container rentals. Florida ranked No. 2 nationally in 2025, marking its 11th consecutive year in the top four states for inbound moves. Eight Florida cities landed in the national top 10, including North Port, in South Sarasota County, which was ranked No. 2. 

North Port’s rising profile has begun to show up elsewhere, too. In U.S. News & World Report’s 2026 Best Places to Retire rankings, which for the first time evaluated cities individually rather than by metro area, Sarasota dropped out of the national top 250 altogether. North Port ranked No. 135 nationally, with Bradenton also landing ahead of Sarasota on the statewide list. Under the previous metro-based methodology, the Sarasota–Bradenton–North Port area had consistently ranked among the nation’s top retirement destinations, buoyed by Sarasota’s cultural amenities and beaches alongside the lower costs of its inland neighbors. The shift to city-level scoring, with heavier weight given to affordability and environmental risk, splintered that advantage and reshuffled the local hierarchy.

Those dynamics mirror what real estate professionals are seeing in practice. “It still skews older,” Crawford says of incoming buyers' demographics. “Across the board, homebuying age is up and retirement age is up.” Many newcomers are not fully retired but are approaching that phase, often with adult children and flexible work arrangements. “Even if they’re working full time, they can be here several months out of the year," Crawford says.

Most are not buying purely as investors. “Generally, they’re going with a primary residence,” Crawford says, often with retirement in mind, but not necessarily imminent. Some purchase now and rent in the interim, with the longer-term goal of establishing residency. “If they find something they really like, they’ll get excited about getting here. If they rent it in the meantime, that’s an extra benefit.”

Equity remains a powerful driver, particularly for buyers arriving from higher-cost markets. “A majority have been able to take equity from what they sold and leverage it here,” Crawford says. Buyers from California and other major metros are often surprised, he adds, “by how far their money can go,” though rising insurance costs, property taxes and community development district fees can still come as a shock.

Demand continues to concentrate in master-planned communities. Lakewood Ranch and Wellen Park, in particular, have absorbed a large share of newcomer interest. “Maintenance, new construction and amenities—it’s attractive on a wide scale,” Crawford says. “You’ve got retail, things to do, and you don’t have to leave the community. It’s much more convenient than it was 10 years ago.” Both Lakewood Ranch’s and Wellen Park’s momentum has been reflected nationally, too, with the community ranking among the country’s best-selling master-planned developments repeatedly in recent years.

Looking ahead to 2026, Crawford expects migration into Florida and into Sarasota-Manatee specifically to remain strong. “All of our indicators, from Florida Realtors and the State Chamber, still show strong migration into Florida,” he says, estimating net in-migration at roughly 1,000 people per day statewide.

Florida has long been a destination for quality of life, but the map is changing. “Sarasota used to be hidden,” Crawford says. “The secret’s out. It’s not just Naples and Miami anymore.”