January’s housing data for Sarasota and Manatee counties reveal a market undergoing recalibration, with some year-over-year swings concentrated in pricing and contract activity rather than overall inventory.

According to the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee (RASM), in Sarasota County, single-family home closed sales rose 0.6 percent year over year, to 523. But the median sale price declined 7.5 percent to $490,000—a notable reversal from recent years of appreciation. 

Inventory tightened sharply. Active listings fell 13.7 percent year over year, to 3,444 homes, reducing supply to five months. 

At the same time, demand strengthened. New pending sales increased, showing renewed contract activity even as prices moderated. Median time to contract increased 6.7 percent to 48 days, and median time to sale rose 12.9 percent to 96 days, underscoring a slower market.

Manatee County showed sharper movement in volume. Single-family home closed sales dropped 10.8 percent year over year, to 444—one of the steepest declines across all property types—yet the median sale price edged up 0.1 percent, to $480,495. Dollar volume declined 12.9 percent, reflecting the reduced transaction count.

Inventory in Manatee single-family homes declined 2.2 percent, leaving 4.6 months of supply. Pending sales rose 17.4 percent—an even stronger contract increase than Sarasota—suggesting buyer engagement may be outpacing the current closing data.

The most pronounced year-over-year price shifts occurred in the condo and townhome sectors.

In Sarasota County, condo and townhome closed sales rose 9.1 percent year over year, to 264—a meaningful increase. However, the median sale price fell 9.5 percent, to $314,175, one of the largest percentage price declines in the January report. Dollar volume declined 26.1 percent, reflecting both pricing adjustments and a shift in transaction mix. Months' supply stood at 8.9, well above balanced conditions, while active listings were nearly flat year over year (down 0.6 percent).

In Manatee County, condo and townhome sales declined 1.7 percent year over year, to 169, while the median sale price fell 9.2 percent, to $305,000. Dollar volume declined 11.7 percent. Inventory fell 4.8 percent, to 1,631 units, with 7.2 months of supply—still putting the buyer in charge.

Cash continued to represent a substantial share of transactions, particularly in condos. In Sarasota County, 45.5 percent of single-family sales were cash, while 68.9 percent of condo and townhome transactions closed without financing. In Manatee condos, cash represented 61.5 percent of transactions.

Still, despite strong cash participation, sellers are conceding more than during the pandemic peak. Sellers received a median 93.7 percent of the original list price in Sarasota single-family homes and 94.2 percent in Manatee single-family homes. For Sarasota condos, that figure was 92.2 percent; in Manatee condos, 91.2 percent.

Andrew Tanner of Premier Sotheby’s International Realty in Sarasota says the numbers reflect normalization rather than distress.

“We don’t have that [pandemic-era] craziness anymore,” Tanner says. “Buyers are more analytical and sellers aren’t testing that ceiling like they were. There’s more maturity and more negotiation now.”

He described the five-month supply in Sarasota single-family homes as near balanced. “Five months implies it’s not necessarily a buyer’s market, but it’s pretty balanced," he says.

Tanner attributes the divergence between Sarasota and Manatee single-family sales largely to pricing adjustments. “Sarasota adjusted more aggressively,” he says. “In Manatee, there was buyer resistance and prices didn’t come down enough. Buyers are more selective now.”

Condo softness, he continues, reflects cost-of-ownership pressures. “Condo buyers are more discretionary. HOA fees, insurance and potential assessments lead to cost-of-ownership sensitivity.”

In the wake of post-Surfside condo collapse safety legislation, condominium associations across Florida were required to complete structural inspections and update reserve studies, prompting special assessments and higher monthly fees in many buildings. Much of that financial reckoning, brokers say, has now worked its way through the system.

“Assessment from storm and engineering and budget reserves have been adjusted by now,” says Tanner. “So now you have older condos that are renovated and up to date, and a buyer can have more confidence.”

That adjustment period, he adds, has contributed to pricing pressure in the condo segment, particularly in older buildings where buyers are closely scrutinizing total cost of ownership, not just purchase price.

Perhaps the most consequential data point in the January report is the scale of the increase in pending sales.

Sarasota single-family pending sales rose 16.4 percent year over year. Manatee single-family pending sales increased 17.4 percent. Sarasota condo pending sales surged 41.2 percent—the largest percentage jump in the entire dataset—and pending inventory in that segment climbed 23.9 percent. Those increases suggest that contract activity is accelerating even as closed sales remain mixed.

For sellers, Tanner offers a word of advice. “Chasing the market instead of leading it is the biggest mistake,” he says. “The first two to three weeks are critical in staging and preparing the home."

As for where buyers are coming from, “we don’t have international buyers back yet," he says. "Our feeder markets are Illinois, Ohio, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey and Miami. Some buyers want to be inland in a development, others want to be closer to boating life on a canal. But nobody wants to do a thing—they want to move in with a toothbrush.”

The volatility of recent years appears to be giving way to something more structured: a market where pricing discipline matters, buyers negotiate and momentum builds through contracts rather than frenzy. “There are no more bidding wars," Tanner says. "It’s a negotiation situation. There’s no anxiety about it.”