Stuart M. Kaminsky, a  Grand Master of the Mystery Writers of America, has lived in Sarasota with his family for 16 years. He’s the author of more than 60 novels, dozens of short stories, television episodes and six produced screenplays as well as the popular Lew Fonesca novels and stories set in Sarasota.

Note: This is a work of fiction. No known strain of avian flu would work as swiftly as the one in this story and it’s not likely there will ever be one. It usually takes up to seven days from the time of infection until the onset of the disease. However, the possibility of a bird flu pandemic is real, if not immediately likely. Although plans are in place for dealing with bird flu or any epidemic, if avian flu does come, government agencies and hospitals may well be overwhelmed. On this point, health officials agree. The information in the story about avian flu and preparedness is essentially correct and was obtained from both the State of Florida Department of Health and the Sarasota County Department of Health. Special thanks go to Scott Pritchard, Sarasota County Health Department Epidemiologist, and Doc Kokol, Director of Communications, Florida Department of Health.

BIRD FLU AND YOU

Bird—or avian—flu is a highly infectious virus similar to respiratory influenza. Occurring naturally in wild birds, it causes serious illness in domestic birds and animals.

A pandemic is a worldwide outbreak of a severe disease that needs three conditions to develop: a new germ that causes illnesses in birds or animals and transfers to humans; serious disease in a limited number of humans; and the ability to transfer easily from human to human. Bird flu has currently met only the first two requirements for pandemics.

Bird flu symptoms include a sudden onset of typical flu-like conditions—such as fever, cough, sore throat and aching muscles—that can rapidly progress into respiratory distress and eventually affect all of the body’s organs, potentially causing death.

While bird flu rarely directly affects humans, it has been transmitted from infected or dead animals to people. Avian flu has currently affected birds in 50 countries through contact with other sick poultry. It has also infected approximately 250 humans in nine countries in Asia and the Middle East; of those, at least half have died.

Humans are encouraged to get annual flu shots, avoid contact with ill people, birds or animals, eat only thoroughly cooked poultry and begin stocking four to six weeks’ worth of non-perishable food.

IS SARASOTA READY?

Along with the state and federal governments, Sarasota County is monitoring flu outbreaks worldwide, stockpiling antiviral medication and funding vaccine development and technology. The county is also developing a local response plan, engaging community partners, expanding a flu monitoring system, educating the local public and assessing community resources.

            The Sarasota County Health Department has developed a worst-case scenario guide. If bird flu comes to Florida, there will be little time to react. It will occur simultaneously with other outbreaks across the U.S., and up to one third of Sarasota’s 349,000 citizens—or, 122,150 people—could become ill, causing healthcare facilities to be overwhelmed. “Concerns are always treatment, vaccines and the ability to keep the infrastructure going,” says Dr. Sandra MacLeod, medical director of the Sarasota County Health Department. “We’re particularly concerned about this type of flu because, since it’s a new virus, no one has immunity to it.”

To help educate the community, the health department has also created a number of resources for public viewing on its Web site, including a brochure for travelers flying to affected countries and links to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, the state of Florida’s Department of Health and the World Health Organization (WHO). “Nobody knows when the next pandemic will occur, or how severe it will be,” MacLeod explains, “but inevitably, we will have one at some point in our future. That’s why we’re advising people to come up with an all-hazards approach to preparedness.”

For more information on bird flu and what you can do to prepare, visit www.sarasotahealth.org.

SOURCES: Sarasota County Health Department, www.sarasotahealth.org; U.S. Pandemic Flu Web site, www.pandemicflu.gov.